When someone tries to tell you that global warming couldn’t be caused by humans just show them this figure and tell them to shut the fuck up. Here’s the caption from the original report (United Nations Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, Contributions of Working Group I, Annual Report 4, Technical Summary, 1997):
Figure TS.22. Comparison of observed continental- and global-scale changes in surface temperature with results simulated by climate models using natural and anthropogenic forcings. Decadal averages of observations are shown for the period 1906 to 2005 (black line) plotted against the centre of the decade and relative to the corresponding average for 1901 to 1950. Lines are dashed where spatial coverage is less than 50%. Blue shaded bands show the 5% to 95% range for 19 simulations from 5 climate models using only the natural forcings due to solar activity and volcanoes. Red shaded bands show the 5% to 95% range for 58 simulations from 14 climate models using both natural and anthropogenic forcings. Data sources and models used are described in Section 9.4, FAQ 9.2, Table 8.1 and the supplementary information for Chapter 9. {FAQ 9.2, Figure 1}
Essentially this graph represents two predictions of temperature in different spots in the world as compared to actual temperature observations. The blue shaded parts are the predictions of temperatures without human contributed carbon emissions. The red shaded parts are the predictions with human contributed carbon emissions. The black line is what was actually measured. As you can see the observed temperatures fall in every case within the predictions made including human contributed carbon emissions. In fact they fit really really well.

When someone tries to tell you that global warming couldn’t be caused by humans just show them this figure and tell them to shut the fuck up. Here’s the caption from the original report (United Nations Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, Contributions of Working Group I, Annual Report 4, Technical Summary, 1997):

Figure TS.22. Comparison of observed continental- and global-scale changes in surface temperature with results simulated by climate models using natural and anthropogenic forcings. Decadal averages of observations are shown for the period 1906 to 2005 (black line) plotted against the centre of the decade and relative to the corresponding average for 1901 to 1950. Lines are dashed where spatial coverage is less than 50%. Blue shaded bands show the 5% to 95% range for 19 simulations from 5 climate models using only the natural forcings due to solar activity and volcanoes. Red shaded bands show the 5% to 95% range for 58 simulations from 14 climate models using both natural and anthropogenic forcings. Data sources and models used are described in Section 9.4, FAQ 9.2Table 8.1 and the supplementary information for Chapter 9. {FAQ 9.2, Figure 1}

Essentially this graph represents two predictions of temperature in different spots in the world as compared to actual temperature observations. The blue shaded parts are the predictions of temperatures without human contributed carbon emissions. The red shaded parts are the predictions with human contributed carbon emissions. The black line is what was actually measured. As you can see the observed temperatures fall in every case within the predictions made including human contributed carbon emissions. In fact they fit really really well.

14 notes, March 27, 2011

  1. soylenth reblogged this from neverendingpresent
  2. soylenth said: This is a great graph.
  3. neverendingpresent posted this